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A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The team have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses something to learn from the other's arguments."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."